N-deal has been the buzz word in media for a while now. And it has even brought the government to the edge of fall, alliance is broken and challenged to prove the majority. It prompted me to think freely and share my thoughts and info I found on the most controversial issue of the UPA government.
Indian power crisisAll the states under power cuts, starting from 30 minutes and soon to span over multiple hours. Industries get rationed power and at the verge of shutting down. Power costs to soon skyrocket making it unaffordable to common man as well as small businesses. Power which fuels the economic engine could well become the single biggest limiting factor as India tries to achieve a consistent 8% growth target. India still has more than two lakh villages to be electrified. If we already have a power shortage and can't sustain growth at just 8%, how can we even think about electrifying these?
The US Nuclear Scenario:Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, which came on-line in 7 February 1996, was the last U.S. commercial nuclear reactor to go on-line; and many more to follow soon. They already have two other plants which will go online by 2014. US aim to add new 34 more plants in near future. As of 2007 in the United States, there are 104 (69 pressurized water reactors and 35 boiling water reactors) commercial nuclear generating units licensed to operate, producing a total of 97,400 megawatts (electric), which is approximately 20% of the nation's total electric energy consumption. Also we should learn from the Nuclear Power 2010 Program, which coordinates efforts for building new nuclear power plants, and the Energy Policy Act which makes provisions for nuclear and oil industries. Nuclear expansion has been through the uprating (increasing in capacity) of existing power plants. In addition, the Browns Ferry 1 reactor rebuilt, uprated, and returned to service in June 2007, after being shut down for decades. On July 13, 2007, UniStar Nuclear, LLC, filed a combined license application (COL) with the NRC for construction of a new reactor at the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Station. It was the first COL application filed. TVA announced plans to complete construction of the Watts Bar 2 reactor. Watts Bar 2 received a construction permit in 1973. If the unit goes on line, it will be the last reactor to receive a construction permit and license separately. As of March 31, 2008, the NRC has received 9 COL applications and is currently reviewing them. Nuclear plants are the lowest-cost producer of electricity in US. Still The United States relies on diverse sources for electricity.
Current Indian Nuclear Scenario:India currently has around 17 power plants, producing 4120 MWe (http://www.npcil.nic.in/PlantsInOperation.asp). The share of nuclear power from existing reactors in the power produced in our country today stands at approx 3%. We plan to add 20000MW thru the deal. Unfortunately India doesn't have nuclear fuels like plutonium and hence the deal to guarantee a steady supply of fuel. Around 70% of India's total power comes from Thermal Power Plants, which includes basically three types - Coal (60%), Gas and Diesel.The next biggest contributor to power supply is Hydro Power Plants, accounting for nearly 25% of the overall production. Nuclear and wind based power plants in addendum account for a dismal 3% and 1.5% respectively. Coal-based power plants have a share of about 60% and are the biggest contributors to the power supply in India. But almost 50% of the coal-based power plants are experiencing critically short supplies (just as NTPC had already shut down units in Orissa due to coal shortage and NTPC has already imported 3.2 MT to sustain its operation.) But again its not the natural scarcity but continuous neglect of the coal sector over the years that has led to the current situation.
The N-dealThe first round discussions of the deal started in 2005 Jul 15. The main aim of the deal is to provide fuel. It doesn't affect nuclear development/research in India. In 1985 China signed a similar deal for generation of 40000 MW. Being communist, China and America has strong investment relations. Are our communists against this to support China?
India has a stand alone and well defined foreign policy, and will continue to differ with US in other issues. CPI is banking on anti-US Muslim votes in Bengal and Kerala and play other cards like Iran etc. India is a secular country, respects every religion and all Indians are free to follow any religion of their choice. When some of the extremist Muslims left India to make their country Pakistan, Indian borders were open alike for both the Muslims and Hindus there who moved to India. Even though India is the third largest Muslim country (after Indonesia and Pakistan), we still protect and nurture Muslims as a minority community. Congress is a party which doesn't use religion to campaign votes and respects all religions alike. Congress has already made two Muslims as the president of India. CPM should learn to differentiate between financial and foreign relations between US and India.
BJPs Foreign Relations minister Jaswant Singh once called America as India's natural friend. But now BJP has aligned with CPM against the deal, merely as cheap political play hoping to come into power. And if nuclear weapon development is the reason, India can anytime break the deal and proceed in that direction. Even though CPM publicly protests again religious parties like BJP, they will go any length to make instability in the already economically falling apart country. Vajpayee and Advani became ministers for the first time in 1977 with CPM support only. But interesting BJP has now changed the stand saying they are not against the deal, but just want to re-negotiate it (and take the credit for it when they come to power, if they). Even a person with long term vision and sincerity and dedication to the country, our ex president Abdul Kalam also supports the cause very strongly. It is a bucket of options, cleaner and in long term the cheapest and most efficient.
CNN reports "The United States and India announced a landmark deal on nuclear cooperation for civil purposes that they said will benefit both countries and strengthen international non-proliferation efforts. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice says the deal is a step toward "full civil nuclear cooperation." But the deal is drawing criticism as being too conciliatory to India and opening the way to the spread of nuclear weapons. For the first time in 30 years, India will have access to U.S. nuclear fuel and technology, even though India, which has tested nuclear weapons, refuses to join international non-proliferation agreements. The new civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries will "offer enormous strategic and economic benefits to both countries, including enhanced energy security, a more environmentally friendly energy source, greater economic opportunities, and more robust non-proliferation efforts," the statement said. "I can assure you that the United State is not going to suggest a similar deal with any other country in the world. We have always felt of India as an exception," Burns said. "We've made the argument that India has not proliferated its nuclear technology. That India, in effect, outside the system, has played by the rules and the system would be strengthened by bringing it in. Under the pact, India would open its civilian reactors to international inspections in exchange for nuclear fuel and technology from the United States."
I was following the lok sabha debate today on TV. It is quite a shame to see the drama going on there. Why are the Indian politicians so undisciplined, uncivilized and irresponsible? The whole world is watching the developing India and it is shameful to see the politicians running around and shouting and not letting others to speak. I pity the speaker and he should have lot of patience to control these people. When will our elected leaders learn to behave and wait for their turn to speak?!
In parliament, when we listen to the debates of the politicians, we feel everyone is so right. Those are seasoned elocutionists with facts, figures and words carefully chosen by a group of high intellectuals beforehand. Every word they say has been analyzed and reviewed a million times. Advani commented that the current govt is paralyzed. It is the Indians to be blamed for that. We should abolish and ignore all the numerous parties that spring up everyday and focus on major parties and give them majority to rule alone without minority players pulling the strings. There is already around 11 parties in parliament and many times they play a crucial rule in getting a majority or decision making. Is it fair?
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT) is a treaty to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, opened for signature on July 1, 1968. There are currently 189 countries party to the treaty, five of which have nuclear weapons: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and the People's Republic of China (the permanent members of the UN Security Council). Through this N-Deal, India will also become part of it, acknowledged as a nuclear power which has weapons, which otherwise we cannot. India and Pakistan have publicly announced possession of nuclear weapons and have detonated nuclear devices in tests, India having first done so in 1974 and Pakistan following suit in 1998 in response to another Indian test.India is estimated to have enough fissile material for more than 250 warheads. Pakistan reportedly has between 80 and 120 warheads according to the former head of its strategic arms division. India is one of the few countries to have a no first use policy, a pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons.
Quoting Sonia Gandhi : 'Our government has signed an international agreement that will enable more nuclear power plants to generate power. I am sure many of you are asking yourselves why this is so important. It is extremely important because as our economy grows, the demand for power would rise. We need power for our farms, hospitals, schools, factories and every home in every village.'
An increase in the production of nuclear power decrease our demand for, and consumption of, oil for generating energy. But our dependency of oil for generating power is very low, less than 10%. At present, power from existing nuclear reactors costs, after huge subsidies, between Rs 2.70 and Rs 2.80 per kWh. The coal-fired Sasan mega power project in Madhya Pradesh will be supplying power at Rs 1.196 per unit. The real cost of power from existing nuclear reactors is around Rs 4 per unit; the cost of power produced by new reactors will be around Rs 5.50 per unit. Compare this to the real cost of power produced at thermal plants: Rs 2.50 per unit. Again the uranium market, monopolized by a clutch of suppliers and controlled by an even smaller group of countries, is as, if not more, volatile than the oil market. But in US, Nuclear plants are the lowest-cost producer of base load electricity. The average production cost of 1.76 cents per kilowatt-hour includes the costs of operating and maintaining the plant, purchasing fuel and paying for the management of used fuel. Still The United States relies on diverse sources for electricity. Together, coal and nuclear energy provide almost 70 percent of supply. Natural gas supplies 21.5 percent; hydro power, 5.8 percent; oil, 1.6 percent; and renewable and other sources, 3.2 percent.
So in short, the nuclear power can be cheaper if we have internal resources for fuel. What if our brilliant scientists come up with fuel resources here itself? Then it is a totally different ball game. Power from coal is cheap , no doubt. But the amount of coal used to produce 10,000Kw of power in comparison with nuclear is much higher. Also add the pollution, mining and so on. If we depend only on coal, we will have to import coal. Also, the amount of Energy generated by Nuclear supply will be 10 times that produced by thermal power. And as far as hydro resources, we are very much dependent on rain and there is high resistance from environmentalists to setup a new plant due to massive destruction of woods that may affect forest life. India is working on Solar capability, and has reserved 35000 sqKm in Rajasthan for solar projects but unfortunately, this technology is nowhere near it's prime time. Lot's of research going on and with nanotechnology they hope to increase efficiency by 2-3 times and the costs are coming down too, but at this stage it does not compete with Nuclear. The power generated by other conventional means, is no different to the power generated by nuclear reactors. Most of the thermal power plants are already importing coal. Our coal has high ash content and less BTU value and less efficient. Wind energy and other renewable energies are not adequate to fulfill the requirements of power as needed for a growth rate of 9%. The fossil fuels like oil and natural gas available are not adequate to meet the requirements. Large quantities are required for import, which is prohibitive with the existing prices. So the deal. Again the deal is not US specific, US is just a facilitator.
But it is quite pitiful that our media including Times Now Arnab Goswami is trying to downplay the N-deal and trust vote as a pre-election staged stunt. Definitely it is in the best interest of the Congress as the ruling party to close the deal and get the credit of it, which they started 3 years back. If they can't, it is almost sure that the next ruling party (say BJP) will definitely go ahead with it and add it to their list of achievements. After all this trouble, Congress should sit idle with their hands tied?
In summary, the N-deal is not the full and final answer, it is just another prominent mean to reach the goals. As educated and intelligent Indians, we shouldn't take any one's word for granted. Never trust anyone completely, but listen to everyone, do your research and then understand the facts and support the right ones. Many politicians are biased and many others are forced to stand by their party policy than to have an opinion of there own. Even the press and many articles on the net are quite biased too. Nuclear energy is the only other suitable energy which can make big difference (20000 MW) and government can not work on this due to international restraints. Already 3 years are wasted, now we should do something. India is in a critical stage of its growth path. It is like now or never. With demographic and other advantages, we are on the way to become one of the world powers soon. It is the right time and we should take right action at the earliest to make use of the opportunity. God bless India!
More Info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_WMD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/nuc_reactors/reactsum.html
Will nuclear power benefit the masses?
http://in.rediff.com/news/2008/jul/21kanchan.htm
Nuclear Energy Institute - Reliable & Affordable Energy
http://www.nei.org/keyissues/reliableandaffordableenergy/
Energy Crisis in India
http://www.iitk.ac.in/ime/MBA_IITK/avantgarde/Archive/vol3_ed6/energy_frame.htm
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